Jonathan vs Obi: Can the Opposition Present a Real Challenge to Tinubu in 2027?
As the clock ticks toward Nigeria’s next general election in 2027, political tensions are beginning to rise, coalitions are forming, and familiar names are resurfacing. Among them: former President Goodluck Jonathan and Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate Peter Obi.
With President Bola Ahmed Tinubu already endorsed by the All Progressives Congress (APC) for a second term, all eyes are now on the opposition. But could the 2027 presidential ballot feature a dramatic face-off, Tinubu vs Obi vs Jonathan?
Let’s examine the political terrain.
Tinubu Secures APC’s 2027 Ticket
On May 22, 2025, the APC officially endorsed President Tinubu as its sole candidate for the 2027 elections. Despite Nigeria’s economic challenges under his leadership, rising inflation, fuel subsidy removal backlash, and public frustration, Tinubu remains politically fortified by incumbency and internal party loyalty.
With APC’s nomination sealed, the question now is: Who can beat Tinubu?
Goodluck Jonathan’s Rumored Comeback
Former President Goodluck Jonathan has found himself unexpectedly in the 2027 political conversation, with rumors suggesting the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is actively seeking his return. Supporters argue that Jonathan, perceived as a peaceful, more economically stable former leader, could unify the opposition and reclaim votes from the north and the Niger Delta.
But Jonathan has publicly denied any intention to run, dismissing viral social media claims as “fake news” and clarifying that he holds no political ambitions for 2027.
“I have no active Instagram account, and I am not contesting for president,” , Jonathan said in a public statement.
Despite the rumors, there’s been no visible political movement or campaign from his camp. For now, Jonathan remains a popular but unlikely challenger.
Peter Obi’s Renewed 2027 Bid
In contrast, Peter Obi has left no room for ambiguity.
The Labour Party candidate, whose 2023 campaign galvanized Nigeria’s youth and urban middle class under the “Obidient” movement, has confirmed his intention to run again in 2027, but under a new banner.
Obi has joined forces with the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in what is being branded as a “Third Force Coalition”, a political alliance of smaller parties, former governors, and technocrats aimed at unseating Tinubu. He has pledged to serve only one term if elected, a strategic move aimed at calming succession anxieties and building trust among skeptical political allies.
However, Obi’s path is far from smooth.
The Opposition Coalition Dilemma
A major hurdle facing the opposition is fragmentation.
There are ongoing talks about a mega coalition that could bring Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and other opposition leaders together under a single front. Atiku’s camp has floated the idea of him running in 2027 for just one term and handing over to Obi in 2031.
But Obidients, the fervent grassroots supporters of Peter Obi, have strongly rejected any idea of Obi playing second fiddle, especially as vice president to Atiku. The backlash was swift and intense, forcing both camps to clarify that no formal agreement has been made.
Obi himself has stated that the coalition talks are “issue-based” and not about power sharing.
This internal conflict underscores the opposition’s biggest risk: division.
The 2027 Matchup: What’s at Stake?
| Candidate | Strengths | Weaknesses |
| Tinubu (APC) | Incumbent power, deep political network, control of institutions | Public dissatisfaction, economic hardship, trust deficit |
| Jonathan (PDP?) | National name recognition, past presidential experience | No confirmed interest, aging political brand |
| Obi (ADC/Labour) | Youth support, perceived integrity, policy-driven campaign | Limited reach in rural areas, coalition tensions, no PDP backing |
If Jonathan chooses not to run, and all signs point that way, Peter Obi stands as the most viable opposition candidate. But without a unified front and proper coalition structure, even his renewed candidacy could fall short.
Lessons from 2023
In the 2023 elections, Tinubu won with just 36% of the vote, as the opposition vote was split between Atiku, Obi, and Kwankwaso. A similar split in 2027 could once again hand Tinubu an easy path to victory.
Obi’s appeal among the youth and urban voters is undeniable. But to defeat Tinubu, he must win over the political class, form credible alliances, and deepen his rural reach, especially in the North.
Conclusion: Who Can Beat Tinubu?
- Jonathan is a respected elder statesman, but unlikely to return to the arena.
- Obi is the most active and determined opposition figure, but must navigate the treacherous terrain of coalition politics.
- Tinubu remains the man to beat, bolstered by incumbency and establishment power.
If 2027 will birth a change, it must begin not just with popularity, but with strategic unity. Without it, Tinubu could cruise to a second term, opposed not by a coalition, but by chaos.
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